How far are Australians from owning their first home? We analysed 120 suburbs across Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia to calculate the real gap — in dollars, in months, and in years — for first home buyers at the median income.
Only 14% of Australian median-income households can afford the median-priced home — down from 43% just three years ago. Three of four key affordability metrics tracked by Cotality hit record highs in 2025. Australia's national median multiple of 8.2× places it firmly in the "severely unaffordable" category by international standards.
Australian housing affordability deteriorated sharply through 2024 and 2025, driven by a confluence of rising property values, elevated mortgage rates and stagnant wage growth relative to asset prices. National home values climbed 47.3% since March 2020, adding approximately $280,000 to the median dwelling value in just five years.
Yet within this challenging national picture, significant variation exists at the suburb level. Our analysis of 120 first home buyer suburbs across Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia reveals that affordability is not uniform — and that for buyers with the right combination of savings discipline, grant awareness and suburb selection, property ownership remains achievable within 3–5 years even at median incomes.
Adelaide's northern corridor is recording 12–22% annual price growth while medians remain under $500,000. Queensland's Ipswich and Logan corridors offer 9–10% growth with $30,000 FHOG eligibility. Melbourne's outer western corridor (Melton, Wyndham Vale, Manor Lakes) offers entry under $625,000 with stamp duty exemption. The gap is real — but it is not the same in every suburb.
Australia's housing affordability crisis did not emerge overnight. The national median multiple — the ratio of median house price to median household income — has risen from 5.0× in 2012 to 8.2× in September 2025, according to Cotality's Housing Affordability Report. A ratio above 5.1 is classified as "severely unaffordable" by Demographia's international affordability index.
Assuming the median household income and saving 20% of gross income annually:
Source: Cotality Housing Affordability Report, November 2025; PropTrack Housing Affordability Index 2025. Note: figures use 20% deposit at median dwelling price. The 5% Deposit Scheme reduces these timelines by approximately 75% in dollar terms but adds LMI exposure without the government guarantee.
PropTrack estimates that an average-income household saving 20% of their income needs 5.8 years to reach a 20% deposit on the median-priced home. The government's 5% Deposit Scheme (now unlimited places, no income cap from October 2025) reduces this to approximately 1.5 years for the same household — at the cost of a higher loan-to-value ratio. Used strategically with the right suburb and grant combination, this is a genuine game changer.
| State | Median house (capital) | FHOG | Stamp duty threshold | Years to 10% deposit* | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria | $920,000 | $10,000 | Free under $600k | 5.9 yrs | Moderate |
| New South Wales | $1,290,000 | $10,000 | Free under $800k | 8.4 yrs | Challenging |
| Queensland | $870,000 | $30,000 | Waived (new builds) | 5.1 yrs | Moderate |
| South Australia | $740,000 | $15,000 | Free under $650k | 4.2 yrs | Most accessible |
*Years to save 10% deposit + costs at $2,500/month household savings rate. Capital city median prices as at Q1 2026. Sources: Cotality, Domain, state revenue offices.
South Australia stands out as the most accessible capital city market for first home buyers in 2026. The combination of a lower median price, $15,000 FHOG, full stamp duty exemption under $650,000, and HomeStart shared equity makes it structurally more accessible than any other state. Adelaide's northern corridor is recording 12–22% annual growth — some of the highest in Australia — while entry prices remain under $500,000 in suburbs like Elizabeth North ($420,000 median) and Davoren Park ($390,000 median).
Queensland's $30,000 FHOG — the highest state grant on mainland Australia — runs until 30 June 2026. Buyers who sign contracts on eligible new builds before that date lock in the higher amount regardless of when construction completes. The Ipswich and Logan corridors offer medians under $580,000 with 9–10% annual growth and strong rental yields above 5.5%.
The following analysis uses a household saving $2,500 per month toward a 10% deposit plus upfront costs (stamp duty or concession, conveyancing and inspection). This represents a realistic savings rate for a dual-income household on median wages after rent and living expenses.
| Suburb | Median house | Min. deposit | Upfront total | Years to save | Growth p.a. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melton South | $560,000 | $56,000 | $59,100 | 2.0 yrs | 8.2% |
| Coolaroo | $590,000 | $59,000 | $62,100 | 2.1 yrs | 9.5% |
| Broadmeadows | $610,000 | $61,000 | $91,550 | 3.1 yrs | 9.2% |
| Manor Lakes | $615,000 | $61,500 | $92,300 | 3.1 yrs | 8.0% |
| Wyndham Vale | $625,000 | $62,500 | $93,600 | 3.1 yrs | 8.5% |
| Hampton Park | $640,000 | $64,000 | $95,900 | 3.2 yrs | 7.5% |
| Pakenham | $640,000 | $64,000 | $95,900 | 3.2 yrs | 8.0% |
| Werribee | $655,000 | $65,500 | $98,000 | 3.3 yrs | 7.5% |
| Suburb | Median house | Min. deposit | Upfront total | Years to save | Growth p.a. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Druitt | $750,000 | $75,000 | $78,100 | 2.6 yrs | 7.8% |
| Minto | $760,000 | $76,000 | $79,100 | 2.6 yrs | 7.8% |
| Campbelltown | $780,000 | $78,000 | $81,100 | 2.7 yrs | 7.5% |
| Ingleburn | $780,000 | $78,000 | $81,100 | 2.7 yrs | 7.5% |
| Werrington | $820,000 | $82,000 | $85,100 | 2.8 yrs | 6.5% |
| St Marys | $835,000 | $83,500 | $86,600 | 2.9 yrs | 7.2% |
| Penrith | $870,000 | $87,000 | $90,100 | 3.0 yrs | 5.8% |
| Blacktown | $920,000 | $92,000 | $132,800 | 3.7 yrs | 5.5% |
| Suburb | Median house | Min. deposit | Upfront total* | Years to save | Growth p.a. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagleby | $545,000 | $54,500 | $57,600 | 1.9 yrs | 9.5% |
| Woodridge | $540,000 | $54,000 | $57,100 | 1.9 yrs | 9.5% |
| Goodna | $550,000 | $55,000 | $58,100 | 2.0 yrs | 9.0% |
| Redbank Plains | $540,000 | $54,000 | $57,100 | 1.9 yrs | 9.2% |
| Ipswich | $560,000 | $56,000 | $59,100 | 2.0 yrs | 9.5% |
| Logan Central | $580,000 | $58,000 | $61,100 | 2.0 yrs | 8.2% |
| Caboolture | $580,000 | $58,000 | $61,100 | 2.0 yrs | 9.5% |
| Deception Bay | $560,000 | $56,000 | $59,100 | 2.0 yrs | 9.0% |
*QLD stamp duty waived on new builds from May 2025. Upfront total = 10% deposit + conveyancing + inspection only for new builds.
| Suburb | Median house | Min. deposit | Upfront total | Years to save | Growth p.a. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davoren Park | $390,000 | $39,000 | $42,100 | 1.4 yrs | 14.0% |
| Elizabeth North | $420,000 | $42,000 | $45,100 | 1.5 yrs | 13.5% |
| Elizabeth | $430,000 | $43,000 | $46,100 | 1.5 yrs | 12.5% |
| Smithfield | $440,000 | $44,000 | $47,100 | 1.6 yrs | 13.0% |
| Hackham | $495,000 | $49,500 | $52,600 | 1.8 yrs | 11.5% |
| Morphett Vale | $510,000 | $51,000 | $54,100 | 1.8 yrs | 11.5% |
| Salisbury | $565,000 | $56,500 | $59,600 | 2.0 yrs | 11.2% |
| Salisbury North | $530,000 | $53,000 | $56,100 | 1.9 yrs | 12.0% |
One of the most persistent myths in the housing affordability debate is that proximity to a CBD automatically means unaffordable prices. Our data tells a more nuanced story. Several suburbs within 30km of their respective CBDs remain accessible for first home buyers at median incomes — particularly in Melbourne's north and Adelaide's inner north.
| Suburb | State | CBD distance | Median house | Years to save | Train access |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolaroo | VIC | 19km | $590,000 | 2.1 yrs | ✓ Craigieburn Line |
| Broadmeadows | VIC | 18km | $610,000 | 3.1 yrs | ✓ Craigieburn Line |
| St Albans | VIC | 16km | $720,000 | 3.5 yrs | ✓ Sunshine Line |
| Deer Park | VIC | 19km | $665,000 | 3.2 yrs | ✓ Sunshine Line |
| Acacia Ridge | QLD | 12km | $630,000 | 2.1 yrs | Bus corridors |
| Rocklea | QLD | 8km | $730,000 | 2.4 yrs | Bus corridors |
| Moorooka | QLD | 7km | $820,000 | 2.7 yrs | Bus corridors |
| Brompton | SA | 3km | $760,000 | 3.6 yrs | Gawler Line |
| Klemzig | SA | 8km | $730,000 | 3.4 yrs | O-Bahn busway |
| Zillmere | QLD | 14km | $680,000 | 2.3 yrs | ✓ Airport Line |
Rocklea (QLD) at 8km from Brisbane CBD with a $730,000 median was ranked the 6th most in-demand suburb nationally by realestate.com.au in 2025. Coolaroo (VIC) at 19km from Melbourne CBD with a $590,000 median sits comfortably under Victoria's $600,000 stamp duty exemption threshold. Both represent genuine inner-ring affordability — not outliers.
Growth rate matters for first home buyers in two ways: it determines how quickly the gap widens if you don't act, and it determines your long-term wealth creation if you do. The following suburbs are recording the strongest annual price growth within our dataset as of Q1 2026.
At 9.5% annual growth, a $560,000 property in Ipswich becomes $613,200 in 12 months — widening the gap by $53,200. At $2,500/month savings that represents 18 additional months of saving just to stay at the same relative position. In high-growth suburbs, waiting costs more than most buyers realise.
Government support for first home buyers has expanded significantly since October 2025. Three major changes have materially improved accessibility for eligible buyers:
Previously capped at 50,000 places per year with income limits, the First Home Guarantee is now demand-driven and open to all eligible Australian citizens and permanent residents regardless of income. This is the single largest expansion of FHB support in Australia's history. Property price caps still apply by location.
The federal government's shared equity scheme allows eligible buyers to purchase with as little as 2% deposit, with the government contributing up to 40% of the purchase price for new homes (30% for existing). Income caps apply: $100,000 for singles, $160,000 for couples. Available in VIC, NSW, QLD, SA, NT and ACT through participating lenders.
Queensland's $30,000 First Home Owner Grant — the highest on mainland Australia — reverts to $15,000 after 30 June 2026. Buyers who sign contracts on eligible new builds before that date lock in the higher amount. This represents a $15,000 reduction in available government support that will affect affordability for QLD buyers from 1 July 2026.
| Scheme | Benefit | VIC | NSW | QLD | SA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State FHOG | Cash grant | $10,000 | $10,000 | $30,000* | $15,000 |
| Stamp duty relief | Duty saved | Up to $31,070 | Up to $31,335 | Waived | Up to ~$26,830 |
| 5% Deposit Scheme | No LMI | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Help to Buy | 2% deposit | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| FHSS | Up to $50k from super | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
*QLD FHOG reverts to $15,000 after 30 June 2026.
For detailed eligibility conditions by state, see our dedicated grant guides: Victoria · NSW · Queensland · South Australia
The national data tells the macro story. Your gap — in dollars, in months — is unique to your income, savings and target suburb. DeltaMap calculates it in 60 seconds.
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